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Analysis of the Market of Households’ Deposits for 2018

Date: 12.04.2019

The State Corporation Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) has analyzed the development of the market of households’ deposits in 2018. Below are the most significant trends.

Individuals’ Savings Activity

The total amount of bank deposits of individuals increased in 2018 by 2,473 billion rubles up to 28,460 billion rubles [1] In relative terms, the growth was 6.5% (in 2017 – 10.7%)[2].

Investments into uninsured bearer saving certificates were decreasing from the spring of the past year. As the result, from the beginning of the year funds invested into such certificates decreased more than two times (by 236 billion rubles) down to 151 billion rubles. The share of bearer certificates in total deposits also decreased – to 0.5%. Such trend can be explained by the fact that in compliance with the current legislation the saving certificates issued after June 1, 2018 may be only registered securities, their bearer form was eliminated.

The total amount of insured (eligible) deposits with banks (including deposits of individual entrepreneurs) in 2018 increased by 2,840 billion rubles up to 28,873 billion rubles. In relative terms, it showed the growth of 7.9% (in 2017 - 11.0%).

As of January 1, 2019 deposits of individual entrepreneurs amounted to 598 billion rubles (2.1% of the total amount of deposits of individuals) with the increase from the beginning of the year by 138 billion rubles. The estimated amount of covered deposits of individual entrepreneurs is about 343 billion rubles or 57.4% of the total amount of deposits of individual entrepreneurs which corresponds to the structure of deposits of individuals in general.

Dynamics of daily deposit gains demonstrates that in 2018 the population savings were as follows. In January–November 2018 the growth of deposits amounted to 3.5 billion rubles per day, 1.2 billion rubles per day without currency revaluation (2.4 billion rubles per day in January-November 2017, 3.0 billion rubles per day without currency revaluation). Traditional Pre-New Year bonus payments and other additional remunerations resulted in large increase in the deposits. In December deposits of individuals increased by 1,304.0 billion rubles (by 42 billion rubles per day on average) which is slightly lower than the December 2017 increase less the currency revaluation.

Deposit Distribution by the Size

In the reporting year large deposits demonstrated the most active growth. Thus, deposits from 1.4 million to 3 million rubles increased by 17.8% in terms of amount and by 18.2% in terms of the number of accounts, and deposits over 3 million rubles increased by 15.1% in terms of amount and by 17.6% in terms of the number of accounts.

Deposits with balances below 100 thousand rubles were up by 8.5% in terms of the amount and by 2.4% in terms of the number of accounts. Deposits from 100 thousand to 1 million rubles and from 1 million rubles to 1.4 million rubles increased by 6.2% and 11.1% in terms of amount and by 5.3 and 11.0% in terms of the number of accounts, respectively.

During the year the share of deposits from 1.4 million to 3 million rubles and over 3 million rubles increased from 9.7% to 10.3% and from 31.5% to 32.6%, respectively. The share of deposits below 100 thousand rubles and from 1 million to 1.4 million rubles remained almost unchanged. The share of deposits from 100 thousand to 1 million rubles decreased from 37.8% to 36.2%.

Average deposit amount in the banking system (without accounts below 1 thousand rubles) amounted to 166.0 thousand rubles.

Deposit Profitability and its Impact on Deposits Dynamics

Monitoring of interest rates in 100 largest retail banks carried out by DIA evidences decrease in deposit profitability from January to July 2018 and slight growth starting from August. As the result, at year-end 45 (out of 100) banks increased interest rates on the deposits, 44 banks decreased the rates and 11 banks kept them unchanged.

The average level of (deposit-amount-weighted) interest rates on ruble one-year deposits amounting to 1 million rubles for the past year fell by 0.1 p.p. from 7.3% to 7.2% per annum. Average (unweighted) rates on similar deposits increased by 0.7 p.p. from 6.4% to 7.1% per annum.

Deposit Distribution by the Currency and Term

In 2018 the share of foreign-currency deposits increased slightly as the result of ruble exchange rate change (from 20.6 to 21.5%).

The share of short-term deposits (less than 1 year) decreased from 37.8% to 36.9%, the share of long-term deposits (for more than 1 year) decreased from 41.2% to 39.5%. The share of call deposits increased from 21.0% to 23.6%. At that, the main change in the deposit structure took place in the first half of the year.

Deposit Market Concentration

In 2018, the share of 30 largest banks in terms of deposit amount increased from 87.0 up to 89.6%, the share of PJSC Sberbank decreased from 46.1 to 45.1%. Gradual growth of share of the largest banks continues from the end of 2013 - total increase for the period is 13 p.p.

DIA’s Insurance Liability

The Agency’s insurance liability (covered deposits) decreased during 2018 and as of January 01, 2019 amounted to 68.0% of all insured deposits (69.2% as of January 01, 2018). Without considering PJSC Sberbank, this indicator decreased from 64.1 to 62.3%.

[1] According to reporting form 0409101 "Turnover balance sheet on accounts of a credit institution", without individual entrepreneurs.

[2] Formation of relative indicators of the deposit market is influenced by the dynamics of ruble exchange rate and revocation and cancellation of licenses of some banks, except for the cases of cancellation of licenses as a result of reorganization. So, to better reflect the actual dynamics of indicators of the deposit market, this information presents (wherever possible) the data on the growth rates for banks that operated as of the last reporting date, without factoring in currency revaluation. Dynamics of indicators in absolute terms is given without exclusion of currency revaluation.

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